Stainless steel maintained a range-bound market this week. The frequent opening and closing of steel mills at the beginning of the week had a greater impact on the futures disk price. On the one hand, the strong nickel price caused steel mills to be cautious about receiving goods, and on the other hand, the current shipments due to high early production. The pressure was relatively high and they had to let go of orders. The hesitant attitude of steel mills made market transactions clearer than after the holiday. Many merchants entered a wait-and-see state, waiting for the market situation to become clearer, which made the recent market price fluctuations smaller. The steel mill’s price has been maintained at around 14,400 yuan for a long time, causing the futures disk price (the futures corresponding specification has a premium of 470 yuan) to face strong short pressure above 14,700, and the lower part is supported by the current high production costs, so the range has been maintained in the near future Shocking market.
However, as time goes by, the logic of raw material costs supporting prices will be broken. The behavior of steel mills seeking to replace ferronickel has reversed the pressure on the raw material end to the production end. Steel mills gradually began to put pressure on ferronickel plants, and then It may be transmitted to the supply of nickel ore, and the subsequent supply of ferronickel will be supplemented by the increase of overseas return of ferronickel. Once the production cost loosens and the market supply capacity remains unchanged, the stainless steel market price will decline to a certain extent. This week’s 12-2 contract The widening of the inter-price difference from 5 to about 200 reflects this expectation.
To sum up, there is a certain decline in raw material costs, and stainless steel futures can still take advantage of low discount opportunities for short hedging operations.
